We got in the win column yesterday. Tampa Bay couldn't hold on in the late innings, but the Twins and Rangers got fairly comfortable wins bringing the day to 2-1. Still some work to do to run our units back positive, but we're sitting 3-4 (-1.60 units) heading into a huge Sunday slate. Let's get started.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | 2:20 P.M EST
We're going to buy both pitchers here pitching in an environment that typically leans to the under. Wrigley Field unders have a 61% win rate all time and we're taking this one on the heels of back to back overs at Wrigley. Drew Smyly has been awesome within the friendly confines of his home ballpark, pitching to a 2.42 ERA and only allowing a .476 OPS while at Wrigley. Graham Ashcraft has been better on the road than he has in his home ballpark, and is due for some positive regression on the heels of a few poor starts. The wind will be blowing in at Wrigley which will help keep fly balls in the yard. This one has 3-1 written all over it.
The Pick(s): Cubs/Reds Under 7.5 -105
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | 2:10 P.M EST
Two teams with identical records will close a four game set in Milwaukee this afternoon. Alex Cobb will go to the bump for the Giants, and Colin Rea for the Brew Crew. The Giants have dominated the first three of this four game set, but we're going the other direction in this one. Alex Cobb has been awesome this year, but he's been worse on the road and is due for a bit of statistical regression. He's sporting a 2.17 ERA but his xERA is 3.95. He's due for a relative dud in the nearly imminent future. Cobb just aced these Brewers over seven shutout innings a few weeks ago, but if you go back and comb through the batted ball data, you'll find that Milwaukee's offense was squaring him up over the course of that start. I'm betting that they'll find the barrel again today, this time with more success. I think the wrong team is favored here.
The Pick(s): Brewers ML +110, Over 8 -110
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox | 4:10 P.M EST
We head to the west coast for the first of two weest coast games that we have plays in. We're starting in Arizona and backing Merrill Kelly and the Snakes to bounce back from last nights loss. Merrill Kelly has pitched like a really high quality second starter behind Zac Gallen all season long. Boston has already gotten what they came for, which is a series win to close out their road trip out west. Now they'll send the struggling Tanner Houck to the mound who seems to be on the brink of a return to the bullpen. This is actually an environment where he should pitch fairly well with the dynamics of Chase Field, but I think Arizona gets to him enough early to create some separation and salvage a game from this series. I also looked under here but couldn't quite get to the window with it.
The Pick(s): DBacks ML -120
Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | 4:07 P.M EST
Our final play for the day will be in Anaheim. We're going to back rookie starter Eury Perez and the fish on get away day in LA. The kid has an electric arsenal of stuff and he's matched up against an offense that leaves a lot to be desired. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are awesome, but beyond that there's little to fear in this Angels offense. The Marlins offense isn't any better, but they'll get LHP Patrick Sandoval from the Angels today, which presents a pretty good matchups. Jorge Soler and Co. have been better against LHP this season and Sandoval has fared worse at home than he has on the road. His statistical profile is also one that is due for a bit of regression over the course of his next few starts.
The Pick(s): Marlins ML +115
Bonus play from Kenneth of Competitive Hedge Podcast
Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets
- Megill should bounce back after a rough start Vs Chicago
- Mets have won 7 of 10 after a tough start to the year
- Gomber giving up nearly 4 runs per game has last 3 & the Rockies are bottom of their division
The Pick(s): Mets ML -140
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