The last major of the year might be the most iconic. The 150th playing of the Open Championship is at St Andrew's. Jack Nicklaus. Tiger Woods. John Daly. Rory McIlroy. So many legendary champions of this prestigious event. Over here in North America, we wake up early ready to watch the world's best tackle potentially the toughest conditions. This is our preview of the event and what bets to make.
The Track - Old Course at St Andrew's
The Old Course is the home of golf and one of the most iconic courses on the planet. I had the opportunity to play Turnberry over in Scotland with my dad years ago, but nothing compares to this open track. It plays at just over 7300 yards and is a par 72. Could come down to the road hole and the driveable 18th hole to decide a winner like it has in years past.
Winner Picks (0.5 Units)
Rory McIlroy +900
Yes, it is not a hot take to have the odds on favorite to win, but this is a historic week. It is the 150th playing of the Open and emotions were high with Jack and Tiger being there. The champions dinner Rory got to participate in, and the sport is a bit divided right now with the PGA vs. LIV rivalry. I think Rory would want nothing more than to win and make a true statement regarding said rivalry. I am all in on Rory this week
Jordan Spieth +1600
Another former champion has the fourth-best odds to win. Spieth was top ten last week at the Scottish Open and also has been very outspoken about LIV Golf. Could be another guy motivated to get a win and send a message. Jordan has not won a major in quite a few years but is playing solid golf heading into the event. Take nice guy Jordan with half a unit.
Bryson DeChambeau +8900
This one might be out of left field, but this could be a situation where Bryson overpowers the course to win it. Again, major long shot, a player not coming in with the best form, but a former major champion. If the wind doesn't blow and scoring conditions are there I love Bryson to smack it around and maybe get it done on Sunday.
Top 5 Pick (1 Unit Play)
Will Zalatoris +580
How can you not ride the hot hand in majors thus far this year? A number of years ago Rickie Fowler was top five in all four majors with no wins, why can't Zalatoris do it? Now, Will had to withdraw last year, but he is on a different level this year. I do think he is a bridesmaid here, not a bride, but the top five value is great. Rolling with Willy Z for top five.
All Betting Lines Come Bet99, The Competitive Hedge Podcast Betting Sponsor
Top 10 Pick (1 Unit Play)
Cameron Smith +280
Always been a big fan of the Aussie in major championships. He has been in solid form this season and at St Andrews, I think the course sets up well for him. The fact a top ten finish is this kind of value is kind of crazy. I could see him playing well on Thursday and Friday and then holding it together on the weekend in contention. Roll with the best hair-mustache combo on tour.
Top 20 Picks (1 Unit Plays)
Collin Morikawa +150
A missed cut last week was not something that I loved to see from Collin. But the defending champion always seems to show up in the majors. He played three great rounds at the US Open and was in contention for most of the event. He also seems like a guy that gets jazzed for the majors, so I love this play for Morikawa. I don't think he has enough to win, but super close.
Max Homa +300
Homa had a solid finish last week at the Scottish Open, finishing at T16. He rocketed up to fourth heading into Sunday as well and is embracing the overseas golf according to Twitter. Yes I constantly have Max Homa in my card, but he is playing great golf and the value of +300 for just a solid four rounds is tough to pass up. Good vibes only for one of my favorites to pull this off.
Round 1 Leader (0.5 Unit Plays)
Shane Lowry +3400
Now I had Lowry to be the first-round leader at the last major and he was disappointed. But this is the only major in his career that he has won. Could I see the former champion rocketing out to a -5 or -6 and lead after the first day? Of course, which is why it is worth a sprinkle. Lowry may not be from Scotland, but he is a fan favorite nonetheless and I like him as a first round leader.
Missed Cuts (1 Unit Plays) Scottie Scheffler +280
People might think I am crazy having the world number one missed the cut at the final major. Scheffler just missed winning the US Open a few weeks ago. But a missed cut last week at the Scottish Open is concerning. Could he have overlooked that event looking ahead to this week? For sure, but it also could be he needs a few more starts on a links golf course to figure it out. I am banking on the latter.
Patrick Cantlay +260
Having the world number four missing the cut after having the world number one might seem crazy. Especially when that said number four was fourth last week at the Scottish Open. But in his four starts at the Open, his best finish is T27. Patrick also missed the cut last year, so I think the value is there for a potential missed cut. Roll with this play if you want a high-risk, high-reward bet.
Other Plays We Will Be Hammering (1 Unit Plays)
72 Hole Bets:
Jordan Spieth over Xander Schauffele -109
Tyrell Hatton over Tommy Fleetwood +102
Cameron Smith over Justin Thomas +102
Thank you to everyone that gave this a read-through! Check out the other great work at the network, including my podcast the Competitive Hedge Podcast.
Comments