Today we look at the Milwaukee Bucks, a team that should be contending for titles but finds itself on the outside looking in
Let’s say I presented you with a random NBA team that has accomplished the following in the last five seasons:
Five straight trips to the playoffs
Won a title
Had the best winning percentage of any team in the last five seasons
Best player is 29 years old coming off of averaging 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game
Best player has been in the top 4 of MVP voting for the last six years and won the award twice
Chances are you would think that this team in question was pretty good, and should be contending for more championships. These numbers reflect the reality of the Milwaukee Bucks. Despite the illusion of success, the Bucks are in a somewhat surprising state of uncertainty. The team traded for star point guard Damian Lillard last season, and the chemistry with their superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo never seemed quite right. They also made a coaching change from Adrian Griffin to Doc Rivers in the middle of the season. And for the second consecutive season, the Bucks were upset in the first round of the playoffs.
So what is next for the Milwaukee Bucks? One of the biggest concerns is that this is an older team. Of the top 10 in minutes per game last season for the Bucks, only three players were under the age of 30: Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, and Malik Beasley. Beasley has moved on to Detroit and in his place the team signed Taurean Prince and Delon Wright, two older veterans on one-year deals. They did sign 25 year old Gary Trent Jr, which adds necessary shooting off the bench. In the Draft, the Bucks went for youth and potential with their two picks, selecting AJ Johnson from the NBL and Tyler Smith from the G League Ignite. Both players have shown flashes of what is to come, but likely will not be getting any meaningful rotation minutes this upcoming season.
As of this writing, both Jae Crowder and Patrick Beverley remain unsigned and it doesn’t seem like the Bucks are in any hurry to bring either back, with reports that Beverley may take his talents overseas. The Bucks are in a predicament where they employ a top five player in the world, but may not have the team around him to still be able to compete for championships. The declining health and availability of Khris Middleton remains a huge question mark for this team. He has only played in 53% of the teams games in the last two seasons and seems to be far removed from his All-Star form a short few years ago. If he cannot remain healthy, then the Bucks ceiling is limited.
Ultimately, what the next couple of seasons of Bucks basketball will be defined by is the chemistry and cohesion between Giannis and Damian Lillard. The Bucks acquired Lillard from Portland before the start of last season in a deal that sent out Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, a 2029 first round pick, and two first round pick swaps (2028, 2030). In every sense of the term, this was a win-now a trade. A trade for a team that felt they had hit a roadblock with their previous iteration. In the first year of the experiment it has seemed that the Bucks got the worse end of the deal. Jrue Holiday went on to be a pivotal piece to the Celtics championship run and Grayson Allen led the league in three point percentage last season in Phoenix.
Lillard meanwhile, saw his points, assists, rebounds, and three point percentage all tick down from his previous season in Portland. A lot of this can be explained with the understanding and accepting of a new role where he is no longer the main attraction. But there are more issues for concern, such as the pick and roll between him and Giannis never being quite as fluid as many expected. There were also personal issues for Lillard, as he was dealing with a divorce and a relocation to a new city (which it is reported that he did not want to be in).
According to Bucks head coach Doc Rivers in an appearance on the Bill Simmons Podcast recently, Lillard was not training properly before the season since he was hoping to prevent any injury before he was traded. That would explain why he was not at his sharpest last season. But that also means that there are no excuses for Lillard this season. If he can elevate beyond where he was last season and remain healthy, then maybe the Bucks have a chance to make some noise in the Eastern Conference.
As it stands today, the Bucks are a good team with an elite level superstar that is playing catchup to the Boston Celtics (and to a lesser extent the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers). Like many teams with a superstar who is getting older but still in their prime, the Bucks have a sense of urgency to compete for championships immediately, which is likely the reason that they have retained Doc Rivers. Their primary goal is to make sure that Giannis remains happy as a Buck, and for that to happen Damian Lillard has to be a better sidekick.
I would expect the Bucks to once again win a lot of games and be a top 4 seed in the East again. But the clock is ticking for the Bucks, their window is still open because they have Giannis but the other players around him will need to be able to produce when it is all said and done. And with a 33 year old Damian Lillard, a 35 year old Brook Lopez, and 32 year old Khris Middleton time is not on the Bucks side as it was a mere three years ago when they won the title.
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