We're BACK! I haven't gotten into the writing game in a while and I feel like it's time to get back to it. I am starting with a fresh (0-0) record since I haven't done this since 2021, what's fair is fair. We will be starting with 100 units and tracking weekly profits/losses over the next coming months. I think International Fight Week is a good week to pick back up and start making some money!
As much as I want to give you a pick for every fight, for the sake of unit sizing and all that jazz, I will only be giving out my favorite plays in this article. I will be tweeting out other plays I will be on personally (follow @sayitoutloudsp1 on twitter) so you can fade or follow all you want.
Don't forget to follow everyone at @offtheballnetwork and subscribe to the website so you don't miss any of the great content coming out of the guys there!
Early Prelims
I'll start with Jessica Eye slander.....I have been fading her ever since Valentina basically head kicked her to the moon back at the tail end of 2019. After she got that title shot, she has since rewarded me by going 1-3 in her last 4 fights. She is a pretty durable fighter as she has only been stopped via KO/TKO by Valentina and has only lost once by submission. The other 8 losses have all been by decision.
Her opponent, Maycee Barber, has the villian built into her image. She is confident and if you read through #mmatwitter - you will see a lot of the community really dislikes her for her bursting onto the scene being "overly confident". I am on the opposite side, she came into the UFC and delivered 3 straight KO's to kick off her career inside the UFC. Since then, she had back to back losses to Roxanne Modafferi and Alexa Grasso before bouncing back in her last two. In her last fight against Montana De Las Rosa, I thought Barber looked the best we had seen in a while and employed some strong grappling skills, something we haven't seen in a while.
I don't think for one second Maycee is going to be afraid of Eye's power and will push forward with aggressiveness in this one. Eye has 3 KO's in her career but the last one was way back almost a decade ago in 2014. The odds are -300 in favor of Maycee for a reason here.
You will almost never see me lay a -300 favorite and I won't here either unless I end up parlaying it with another fight. But I am going to fire on a prop bet here and pick Maycee to get the finish at +330.
OFFICIAL BET - MAYCEE BARBER BY KO/TKO/DQ OR SUB +330 (1 UNIT TO WIN 3.30 UNITS)
Prelims
Ian Garry (-175) vs Gabriel Green (+145)
I promise I am not just taking fighters with the nickname "The Future" (Ian Garry, Maycee Barber) and I am not even going to tell you to pick Garry here. What I will say is this kid is very, very good and very, very explosive. He is 9-0 with 6 stoppages including 5 KO's and a submission. He has only 2 fights in the UFC and if you only saw his last performance, you might even disagree with this because he didn't look great.
On the flipside, if you had only seen his first fight, you would know exaclty how explosive he is.
Gabriel Green also has his array of finishing moves as he has 10 stoppages in his 11 wins and has been finished in two of this three losses. Only 2 decisions in 14 career fights, the dude is aggressive.
If I had to pick a fighter here though, it would be Garry....I think his length is going to give Green some difficulty and I could see Garry getting another stylish victory with some type of counter shot that Green gets put down on. But the over/under is where I am going for the pick here. Over is juiced to -140 and the under sits at +110.
OFFICIAL BET - UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS +110 (2 UNIT TO WIN 2.2 UNITS)
#14 Brad Riddell (+125) vs Jalin Turner (-155)
This is another fight that you will not want to miss as it could either be over pretty quickly, or if it does go long, there will be some great, great moments as both these guys love to scrap.
Riddell has been very impressive in his 5 fights in the UFC, going 4-1 and beating Drew Dober in the process. His last fight was a real tough one tha he ended up dropping to Rafael Fiziev who is a monster and will be known by the casuals very soon. He is coming in at 10-2 with his losses coming 1 by TKO and 1 by submission.
Turner seems like he has turned a corner though, after dropping 2 of his first 3 in the UFC to Vicente Luque and Matt Frevola, Turner has won 4 straight and all 4 have been finishes. He seems like he is on a mission of his own and from what I have seen latly, I refuse to pick against the Tarantula.
Turner is 6'3" - has a 77 inch reach and a 46 inch leg reach
Riddell is 5'8" - has a 71 inch reach and a 38 inch leg reach
I know these always don't tell the tale but I think that amount is insane. I also think Jalin has shown some emphasis on the submission game so I am going to go with a couple bets on this fight and see if we can't hit something really nice.
OFFICIAL BET - JALIN TURNER -155 (1.55 UNITS TO WIN 1 UNIT)
OFFICIAL BET - JALIN TURNER BY SUBMISSION +700 (0.25 UNIT TO WIN 1.75 UNITS)
Main Card
(C) Alex Volkanovski (-200) vs #1 Max Holloway (+160)
The first Championship fight of the night is IMO going to be fight of th night. We have seen this same fight play out twice and I am not going to overthink this one.
If you are reading this and watch UFC to some degree, you most likely have an opinion on how that 2nd fight between these two played out. Most of the media, fans and even Dana White himself said that Max had won the fight. I know, the only thing that matters are those pesky ass judges that sit ringside and turn in their scorecards at the end of the night.
Since that fight, Max and Volk have both had some crazy moments and have shown why they are the cream of the crop. Max had battered Calvin Kattar in a five round display of pure domination. He was throwing no-look punches while no-look dodging punches screaming emphatically that he was the best boxer in the organization. Volk basically "son'd" the Korean Zombie in his last fight after staving off defeat in a war with Brian Ortega the fight previous.
Max has been insane during this fight week and he seems like he is hellbent on getting that strap back. He looks like a tired dad that has had enough and is ready to die to get what he thinks is his back. Volk does seem really comfortable but also seems a little like he knows he lost that last matchup and is putting on false bravado IMO.
My favorite bet of the night ....
OFFICIAL BET - MAX HOLLOWAY +160 (3 UNITS TO WIN 4.8 UNITS)
(C) Izzy Adesanya (-500) vs #2 Jared Cannonier (+350)
Early Prelims - ut the Main Event of the evening off this so I gotta take something. Listen, I love Izzy, dude is an absolute savage but an laying -500 on a fight is insane and yes, Drake, you're insane. I will not be shocked if Izzy is able to get this done, I feel like Izzy is taking this fight a little more serious than the last few fights.
Whittaker was a rematch and he knew what he was. Vettori was a rematch and he knew what his gameplan would be and that Marvin couldn't beat him. Paulo Costa was interesting but Izzy really despised him and wanted to hurt him badly. I would say this could be similar to Romero but I also think Jared will be 10x more aggressive then Joel was.
Either way, whoever wins, I think they get a stoppage. Cannonier isn't going to just sit back and not engage with Israel because he will get picked apart at range. He will be aggressive and could set up a counter....or....he could land it and put Izzy out with that power.
OFFICIAL BET FIGHT WILL NOT GO THE DISTANCE -120 (2.4 UNITS TO WIN 2 UNITS)
OFFICIAL BET JARED CANNONIER BY TKO/KO/DQ +500 (1 UNIT TO WIN 5 UNITS)
YTD 0-0 (0 UNITS)
STARTING BANKROLL 100 UNITS
BET THIS CARD - 11.2 UNITS
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