Today we look at the Utah Jazz, a team stuck in the middle that has to decide if it wants to be good today or potentially great in a few years
The general rule in the NBA is that as a franchise, you either want to be contending for titles or to be bad enough to be in a position to draft the next superstar. Where you don’t want to be is somewhere in the middle. This was the folly of the Chicago Bulls during the DeMar DeRozan era for example. The Utah Jazz seem to be entering into this territory, as they are coming off a 31-51 season and have an All-Star power forward in Lauri Markkanen on the roster.
Before we talk about the future of the Jazz, it is important to remember the recent past. Two years ago, the Jazz seemed to realize that the pairing of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell wasn’t working, and Mitchell demanded a trade that eventually sent him to Cleveland. Gobert was traded soon after and he ended up in Minnesota. Both players are now key pieces on playoff teams and the Jazz for their troubles got a lot of draft capital. The roster since then has been overhauled, with Jordan Clarkson being the only remaining player from the 2021-22 Utah Jazz. It became clear that the Jazz were ready for a rebuild.
There was only one problem. The guy that they brought in to coach this rebuilding team, Will Hardy, was probably a little too good. Despite moving most of the high end players these last two years, Hardy has won 37 and 31 games, good for a 42% winning percentage. In that time the Jazz have had the 8th worst record in the NBA, which clearly indicates that they are a rebuilding team but not one that is bad enough to strike gold in the NBA Draft Lottery. As we approach another season, the Jazz will be left to make a decision on Lauri Markkanen and that could define their future trajectory over the next half decade.
Markkanen will be entering free agency next season, and will likely command a max contract of over $209 million. Utah as it stands has two options: they can extend Markkanen and build a contender around him or trade him and tank and hope that they win the Lottery and can draft Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, or VJ Edgecombe. The issue for the Jazz is that while Markkanen is a good player, it can be argued that he is not an elite player, and typically elite players are the ones that win championships. It is also worth noting that he is still 27 and in his prime. The Jazz are $34 million under the salary cap this coming season, meaning that acquiring a running mate for Markkanen is still on the table.
If they did decide to trade Markkanen and completely bottom out, they will likely be looking to move on from John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Collin Sexton. There have also been suggestions that the Jazz have shopped around big man Walker Kessler as well. The issue with the Jazz in this regard will always be that Danny Ainge is their general manager, and he is someone that many front offices find difficult to deal with because of his usually high asking prices. If they were to trade everyone away, this would allow young players like Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, and Kyle Filipowski to develop and get a lot of minutes.
If they decide that they want to retain Markkanen, they could attempt to acquire a player like Brandon Ingram from New Orleans or Fred VanVleet from Houston to pair alongside him, and hope to develop their young players around them to formulate a competent playoff team. Considering the pattern of Ainge, the Jazz, and the NBA as a whole I would imagine that Markkanen is traded sooner rather than later.
Ultimately, the Jazz play in a Western Conference that is completely loaded with talent. Getting a play-in spot will be difficult for them. It is likely a more prudent action to go fully young and be bad for a few years, hope that your lottery ticket cashes in next season, and build around one of the high level prospects in the draft. I would fully expect the Jazz to be at the bottom of the Western Conference next season alongside the Portland Trail Blazers.
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